21 Aug · 23:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1504
FormLLWWL
70%Win chancemodel fair 1.43Szymik
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1314
FormWLLLW
70%
30%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Szymik
Model 70% · 1.43vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 53%Total ~75 pts
3-1
27%
3-0
26%
3-2
17%
1-3
12%
2-3
11%
Elo Gap+190
H2H23-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+190)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-18)