21 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1672
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Oracz
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1639
FormWWWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.77· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H18-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.