22 Aug · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1515
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Adamus
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1486
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H13-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.