22 Aug · 06:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1316
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1392
FormLWLLL
42%
58%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Fira
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H11-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-10)