22 Aug · 12:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1508
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jesiek
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1524
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Jesiek goes over total as favourite 65% (20)
Fair odds · Jesiek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H3-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.