22 Aug · 11:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1428
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gamrot
PG
🇵🇱Patryk Gamrot
ELO 1444
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Gamrot
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.