22 Aug · 11:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1362
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wozniak
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1428
FormWWWWL
43%
57%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Wozniak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)