22 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1508
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Witczak
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1534
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H38-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.