22 Aug · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1330
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1362
FormWLLWW
46%
54%
🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H56-68
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.