22 Aug · 20:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MG
🇵🇱Michal Guzik
ELO 1765
FormWWWWW
76%Win chancemodel fair 1.32Guzik
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1509
FormLWLWW
76%
24%
🌟Guzik stays under total as favourite 62% (80)
Fair odds · Guzik
Model 76% · 1.32vsMarket 78% · 1.28· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 60%Total ~75 pts
3-0
33%
3-1
27%
3-2
16%
2-3
10%
1-3
9%
Elo Gap+256
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+256)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)