22 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1489
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pyrek
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1490
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Pyrek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.