22 Aug · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1509
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gesiarz
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1485
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🌟Gesiarz stays under total as favourite 71% (24)
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.