22 Aug · 18:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1493
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Chmielowski
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1576
FormWWLWL
41%
59%
🌟Chmielowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (40)
Fair odds · Chmielowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+83
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)