22 Aug · 17:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1533
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Morawiec
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1530
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Morawiec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H51-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.