22 Aug · 20:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1668
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Oracz
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1609
FormLLWWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fomin🌟Fomin covers set handicap as underdog 64% (14)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H31-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-15)