22 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1457
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1469
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulkowski🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 76% (25)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H18-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.