22 Aug · 23:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1325
FormLLLWL
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Mleczko
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1477
FormWWWWL
34%
66%
🔥 Underdog lean · Poloszczanski🌟Mleczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (24)
Fair odds · Mleczko
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~79 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+152
H2H8-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+152)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-2)