22 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1667
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Oracz
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1665
FormWWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H20-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.