22 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1457
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mleczko
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1477
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulkowski🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 76% (25)
Fair odds · Mleczko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 34% · 2.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.