29 Aug · 17:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1455
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gesiarz
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1494
FormLLLWW
46%
54%
🌟Gesiarz stays under total as favourite 68% (28)
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.