29 Aug · 15:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TS
🇵🇱Tibor Spanik
ELO 1762
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Spanik
MM
🇵🇱Maksymilian Miastowski
ELO 1729
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Miastowski🌟Miastowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (64)
Fair odds · Spanik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H9-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.