29 Aug · 15:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1396
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vincenec
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1386
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Idaczyk🌟Vincenec goes over total as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H7-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.