29 Aug · 16:35 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MG
🇵🇱Michal Gawlas
ELO 1551
FormLLWWL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Spanik
TS
🇵🇱Tibor Spanik
ELO 1762
FormWLLWW
28%
72%
Fair odds · Spanik
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~75 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+211
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+211)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)