29 Aug · 16:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1666
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Miastowski
MM
🇵🇱Maksymilian Miastowski
ELO 1729
FormWWLLW
43%
57%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as underdog 69% (80)
Fair odds · Miastowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H32-29
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-29)