29 Aug · 14:15 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1431
FormLWWLW
69%Win chancemodel fair 1.45Mugowski
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1248
FormWLWLL
69%
31%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 69% · 1.45vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 52%Total ~78 pts
3-1
27%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
12%
2-3
11%
Elo Gap+183
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+183)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)