29 Aug · 17:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AW
🇵🇱Alan Wos
ELO 1509
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Chmielowski
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1560
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
🌟Chmielowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 19% (43)
Fair odds · Chmielowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H18-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-10)