29 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1551
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Witczak
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1539
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H14-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.