29 Aug · 18:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1406
FormWLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1469
FormLWWLW
43%
57%
🌟Misiak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (12)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 46% · 2.20· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H9-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)