29 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1638
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pawlik
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1604
FormLWLWL
54%
46%
🌟Fomin covers set handicap as underdog 64% (14)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.77· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.