29 Aug · 23:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1451
FormLLLWL
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Misiak
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1325
FormWWLWL
64%
36%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~76 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
23%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+126
H2H104-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+126)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (104-40)