30 Aug · 01:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1377
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wiza
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1347
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Wiza
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H21-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.