29 Aug · 23:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1347
FormWWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Nowak
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalski
ELO 1276
FormWLLLW
58%
42%
🌟Nowak goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H20-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-19)