30 Aug · 02:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1412
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1440
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
🌟Misiak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (12)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H9-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.