30 Aug · 06:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1285
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Piecowski
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1255
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H3-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.