30 Aug · 06:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1301
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1325
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Eliasz🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.