30 Aug · 05:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1400
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zagajewski
MZ
🇵🇱Mateusz Zagajewski
ELO 1431
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Zagajewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.