30 Aug · 05:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1342
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Nowak
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalski
ELO 1284
FormWLLWL
56%
44%
🌟Nowak goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H21-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-19)