30 Aug · 07:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1301
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1344
FormWWWLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Eliasz🌟Piecowski goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H30-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-12)