30 Aug · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1446
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dabrowski
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1411
FormWWLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H10-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.