30 Aug · 06:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1344
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1352
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H6-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.