30 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1402
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vincenec
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1384
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🌟Adach stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H9-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.