30 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1315
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1344
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Piecowski goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H12-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.