30 Aug · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WP
🇵🇱Wojciech Pytlas
ELO 1551
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pytlas
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1526
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Pytlas
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.