30 Aug · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1299
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lukaszewski
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1290
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H34-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.