30 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1423
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vincenec
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1386
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Adach stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H10-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.