30 Aug · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1372
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sinicki
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1396
FormLLLLW
47%
53%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H11-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.