30 Aug · 14:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1276
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1349
FormLWWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H11-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-6)