30 Aug · 20:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1501
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1527
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.