30 Aug · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1573
FormWLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szostok
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1520
FormWLLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H7-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-4)