30 Aug · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1532
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1513
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H58-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.